The latest rise of the world wide average air temperature will not matter compared to how much the planet will heat up by the year 2100, says the latest study in Nature Climate Change. The study compared climate models that reflect the present slowdown in warming to those that don’t. These latest findings show that long-term warming predictions remained unchanged between the four groups of models; since it was not a factor in the global warming slowdown, averaging models won’t change the minds of critics.
“This much hyped global warming slowdown is just a distraction to the task at hand,” lead author and Chief Investigator with the ARC Center of Excellence for Climate System Science, Prof Matthew England said. “This shows that the slowdown in global warming has no bearing on long-term projections – it is simply due to decadal variability. Greenhouse gases will eventually overwhelm this natural fluctuation.”
To split the long-term temperature results from short–term variability, researchers took 200 climate models and recalculated them to 2100 then compared models that matched the current slowdown to those that didn’t. The models were examined by utilizing one of two IPCC carbon emission projections. The first was a situation where greenhouse gas concentrations went on rising uninterrupted through the 21st century. The other assumes emissions are minimized to simulate global warming peaking by 2040, before being reduced drastically.
Under the high emissions situations, the difference in average projected end of century warming among the two groups of models is less than 0.1 degrees centigrade, a fifth of the projected 5 degrees if emissions are not interrupted.
Warming of this greatness is much beyond the 2 degree centigrade threshold which is assumed to be a target by the Australian government and a safe limit declared by the IPCC. Way back, lobby groups insisted that the latest slowdown in the rise of global temperature is the cause of the abandonment of international and national efforts to swerve carbon emissions. The slowdown only reflects short- term variability. Long-term global warming is expected to rise to dangerous levels unless carbon emissions are minimized drastically in the next decades.
“Our research shows that while there may be short-term fluctuations in global average temperatures, long-term warming of the planet is an inevitable consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations,” stated Prof England.