Climate Change Scientist says Global Warming Slowdown is Just a Minor Distraction and will Peak in 2040

The latest rise of the world wide average air temperature will not matter compared to how much the planet will heat up by the year 2100, says the latest study in Nature Climate Change. The study compared climate models that reflect the present slowdown in warming to those that don’t. These latest findings show that long-term warming predictions remained unchanged between the four groups of models; since it was not a factor in the global warming slowdown, averaging models won’t change the minds of critics.

“This much hyped global warming slowdown is just a distraction to the task at hand,” lead author and Chief Investigator with the ARC Center of Excellence for Climate System Science, Prof Matthew England said. “This shows that the slowdown in global warming has no bearing on long-term projections – it is simply due to decadal variability. Greenhouse gases will eventually overwhelm this natural fluctuation.”

To split the long-term temperature results from short–term variability, researchers took 200 climate models and recalculated them to 2100 then compared models that matched the current slowdown to those that didn’t. The models were examined by utilizing one of two IPCC carbon emission projections. The first was a situation where greenhouse gas concentrations went on rising uninterrupted through the 21st century. The other assumes emissions are minimized to simulate global warming peaking by 2040, before being reduced drastically.

Under the high emissions situations, the difference in average projected end of century warming among the two groups of models is less than 0.1 degrees centigrade, a fifth of the projected 5 degrees if emissions are not interrupted.

Warming of this greatness is much beyond the 2 degree centigrade threshold which is assumed to be a target by the Australian government and a safe limit declared by the IPCC. Way back, lobby groups insisted that the latest slowdown in the rise of global temperature is the cause of the abandonment of international and national efforts to swerve carbon emissions. The slowdown only reflects short- term variability. Long-term global warming is expected to rise to dangerous levels unless carbon emissions are minimized drastically in the next decades.

“Our research shows that while there may be short-term fluctuations in global average temperatures, long-term warming of the planet is an inevitable consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations,” stated Prof England.

Source: http://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/heat-still-despite-warming-slowdown

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Comments

  1. William Holder says

    It’s past time the media become more erudite on this subject. If Hansen had suggested 30 years ago that global warming would bring some imperceptible and largely unverifiable warming of our deep oceans, I suspect this research would have been relegated to the dust bin.
    The climate changes all the time but there is precious little evidence that our co2emissions are impactful. As a result and in a desperate bid to maintain this charade, Global Warming has become Climate Change – a natural and ongoing process. CO2 a gas required to sustain life, is now referred to as Carbon a solid and equated with soot.
    The models don’t work – the hypothesis has failed, but with so much momentum, money, reputations and egos on the line – the charade goes on – each new headline more desperate than the last. I’ll throw my lot in with Freeman Dyson who suggests that climatologists are no Einsteins. http://bit.ly/1qV6V9H
    Take a walk on the dark side – wattsupwiththat.com

  2. Stacie Meier says

    What the Climate Change Scientist have run into is an irony. They have an environment issue that is causing their, theories, (And they are only theories not fact) to be invalid at moment. IM curious, how they managed to get around this latest data.

  3. Eshmil says

    I heard that this “climate scientist” Prof Matthew England graduated from Cardinal Stritch at the bottom 10% of his class. I tried to verify but the link in the article is broken and points to a completely fictitious URL, so I guess the rumors must be true.

  4. mememine69 says

    Exaggerating vague science and telling kids science isn’t allowed to be “certain” they are doomed was not progressive let alone civilized.
    The last 34 years of climate action FAILURE is 100% proof that science’s 34 years of 97% certainty was NOT certainty, no matter how much you hissy fit hate fear mongering neocons.
    Who’s the neocon now?
    Only unstoppable global denial and war crimes trials are certain.

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